Hurricane Jova, a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 miles (160 kilometers) per hour, was forecast to gain speed as it nears Mexico’s Pacific coast, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
The storm, which weakened from Category 3 earlier today, was about 70 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, at 8 p.m. East Coast time and moving north-northeast at 6 mph, the center said in an advisory.
“This motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed this evening,” according to the advisory. “The center of the hurricane will cross the coast of Mexico tonight and move over western Mexico Wednesday.”
Hurricane and tropical storm warnings extend from Lazaro Cardenas to El Roblito, according to the advisory. Hurricane- strength winds of 74 mph or more extend 15 miles from the center. Its tropical-storm strength winds of 39 mph or more reach out 105 miles from its core, up from 90 miles earlier, according to the hurricane center.
In comparison, just before Hurricane Irene struck North Carolina in August, hurricane-strength winds stretched 90 miles from the center and tropical storm power extended 260 miles, according to hurricane center records.
“The most damaging winds are expected just northwest of Manzanillo late this evening,” said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist for Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “Rapid weakening is expected thereafter as Jova gets ripped apart from the high mountainous terrain situated just east of the coastline.”
Storm Surge
A “dangerous storm surge” is likely to strike the coast to the east of where the hurricane’s core goes ashore, according to the center.
Jova may also bring “extreme flooding,” Rouiller said. As much as 12 inches of rain may fall in the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with some areas receiving as much as 20 inches, the center said.
“The rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain,” according to the advisory.
The Mexican government does a good job evacuating residents, and given the storm’s slow forward speed there should be enough time to prepare, said Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania, said yesterday.
“The concern right now is we have a seaport in Manzanillo that faces south, and if this hurricane comes up right into the harbor, it can bring a powerful storm surge,” Kottlowski said. “Jova is a small hurricane and that is one positive thing about it.”
Storm Irwin
About 628 miles to the west of Jova, Tropical Storm Irwin, which had weakened to a tropical depression, regained its strength and now has winds of 45 mph.
Irwin is about 620 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving east at 8 mph. It is forecast to weaken again to a tropical depression and eventually drift south into the Pacific and dissipate.
“Irwin is basically a non-event,” Rouiller said.
The center is monitoring a third system about 200 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, that has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical system in the next two days.
The cluster of thunderstorms is expected to bring heavy rains to southeastern Mexico and Guatemala that could cause mudslides and flooding, according to the hurricane center.
–With assistance from Christian Schmollinger in Singapore, Tony C. Dreibus in London and Lynn Doan in San Francisco. Editors: Paul Gordon, Amit Prakash
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net
Source: Bloomberg